And the Universe Fills with Contrary Indicators


Recently, I notice that every event is pointed to as a potential contrary indicator.

It just seems like someone somewhere pops up pointing out that this or that event marks a top or a popping of a bubble or whatever.

When the whacky Yo funding news hit two weeks ago, pundits lined up to point out that this could be the top of the VC bubble.

More recently, Santelli’s insane rant marked the top for equities.

Then, Yellen mentioning stocks marked a top.

Then, this morning, Murdoch’s bid for Time Warner, “may be the best bearish contrarian indicator yet.”

Just stop already.

Two things here you need to know…

First, if everyone is so busy looking for the event that will mark the very top of some market’s bubble, it says much more about sentiment than the meaning of any event.

And second, while sure there is always an event or two that become symbolic of a top, those events are chosen randomly to a degree and are only accessible in hindsight.

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